Climate wars 2030

WWF’s contribution to the 2030 North conference was to broaden the topic of climate change outside of our traditional area of wildlife, and to focus instead on the security aspects of climate collapse. This does not mean that we are changing our area of interest, just that we realize that not everyone is as interested as we are in saving the natural world for its own sake.

To reach a wider audience, we need to talk about the wider implications of Arctic climate change. The Arctic Programme has commissioned a study on Arctic Climate and Security. The study, led by Dr. Rob Huebert, a well-known Canadian expert on Arctic security issues, is to be released later this year.

At our ‘climate wars 2030’ event, Huebert was able to give people a sneak preview of where his research is heading. He detailed the recent build-up of military interest and capacity in the north. While not suggesting that conflict in the north is imminent, his research shows that various parties are certainly preparing for that possibility.

Huebert was joined on the stage by Gwynne Dyer, a distinguished London-based broadcaster and author. Dyer’s latest book is called ‘climate wars’, and details how a warming world can easily boil over in series of global flashpoints.

The thesis is simple, but powerful. Projections for a global temperature increase above 2 degrees mean many of the world’s people will go hungry. The temperature tolerance of the world’s main food crops will be exceeded in tropical and subtropical regions. “India will lose 25% of its agricultural production at two degrees hotter,” says Dyer. He says figures published only fleetingly from China suggest the giant nation could lose up to 38% of its agricultural production.

As agricultural production declines, says Dyer, “Your most dangerous neighbour lies between you and the equator.” His eyes roamed the room, watching the point sink in for a Canadian audience – in Canada, that means a hungry United States that may be in no mood for the niceties of international relations. “So the generals have reason to be concerned” adds Dyer. “If I was Russian, I’d be worried about the Chinese running out of food.”

It was a powerful presentation, and definitely seemed to make the audience aware that climate change is not just about disappearing ice, and thinner polar bears, but a global problem that requires an urgent global solution.

Clive Tesar, Head of Communications for the Arctic Programme, attended the ‘2030 North’ conference in Ottawa, Canada. The challenge of the conference was to try to imagine what life in Canada’s North will be like in 2030, and to devise a plan to deal with that new reality.

Selling Arctic Snake Oil

There have been lots of media stories over the past couple of years about the ‘cold rush’, breathlessly detailing how the disappearance of Arctic se ice will lead to nations grabbing for the newly accessible Arctic resources.

At least one speaker at this conference is not too sure all of the hype is justified. George Braden, a former premier of Canada’s Northwest Territories, said the US Geological Survey’s recent projection about the ‘undiscovered’ oil and gas in the arctic being bigger than Saudi petroleum reserves sounded like ‘snake oil’ (a reference to people who are selling dubious goods).

Braden recalled how a former government of Canada hyped up the treasures of the north with a ‘roads to resources’ programme. The results of that programme? A few mines, but no great riches, and certainly no sustainable future for the people of the north.

In Canada, the talk about the Arctic is all about sovereignty, not sustainability. Canada’s Prime minister has used a much-quoted line about ‘use it or lose it’ in relation to Canada’s Arctic Sovereignty. An Inuit speaker did not take kindly to that approach. Udloriak Hansen said, “Use it or lose it is offensive. We ARE using it!”

Clive Tesar, Head of Communications for the Arctic Programme, attended the ‘2030 North’ conference in Ottawa, Canada. The challenge of the conference was to try to imagine what life in Canada’s North will be like in 2030, and to devise a plan to deal with that new reality.

Whose North?

Stephen Kakfwi, former Premier of Canada’s Northwest Territories speaks to the 2030 North conference

A central question about policy for the future of the Arctic is “Who will be invited (or will invite themselves) to be involved in setting arctic wide policies?”

It’s a question that has come up several times over the second day of the ‘2030 North’ conference.

There are several different legal considerations – for instance there is talk of the ‘Arctic 5’, the five states that have coastline in the Arctic (Canada, US, Russia, Norway and Denmark (Greenland). Other suggestions say the Arctic Council countries (the Arctic 5 plus Iceland, Sweden, and Finland) should be the ones to make the rules for the Arctic.

But as Rob Huebert, of the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary pointed out “Countries we were not thinking about are becoming major players.” As Huebert notes, the South Koreans are now world leaders on developing ice-capable vessels. South Korean shipyards are currently building tankers supposed to be capable of carrying liquefied natural gas though icy waters. Huebert pointed out that China currently has the world’s largest Arctic research vessel.

What was only briefly mentioned in the whole discussion was the place of Indigenous peoples in discussions about the Arctic’s future. Earlier this year, the Inuit Circumpolar Council released its Declaration on Sovereignty (pdf file, right click to download). Part of this declaration reads, “The conduct of international relations in the Arctic and the resolution of international disputes in the Arctic are not the sole preserve of Arctic states or other states; they are also within the purview of the Arctic’s indigenous peoples.”

While the discussion has the most obvious bearing on future development of arctic renewable and non-renewable resource, there is also a strong connection to climate change issues. The whole discussion of Arctic resource development would likely not be reaching such a fevered pitch, if was not for the fact that shrinking ice cover is expected to make Arctic resources more accessible. In other words, a governance regime that will protect the interests of northerners is a key plank in their ability to adapt to a changing Arctic.

This week, Clive Tesar, Head of Communications for the Arctic Programme, is at the ‘2030 North’ conference in Ottawa, Canada. The challenge of the conference is to try to imagine what life in Canada’s North will be like in 2030, and to devise a plan to deal with that new reality.

Summit hears from a crazy old priest

Miguel D'Escoto Brockmann is presented with an Alaskan native copper shiled following his speech to the Summit

One of the highlights of today was a crazy old priest talking about love, brotherhood and sisterhood, writes Clive Tesar.

That was how Miguel D’Escoto Brockmann, President of the United Nations General Assembly, decribed himself – or to be more accurate, he was telling the story of being so described by a newspaper columnist. The columnist was apparently complaining about the fact that Brockmann’s influence was rubbing off on world leaders.

That influence was apparently evident yesterday, when the United Nations, on ’Earth Day’, voted to declare the day ‘Mother Earth Day’.

Today, Brockmann put the force of his position behind the Indigenous peoples. He called on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the negotiating body that is trying to come up with a new deal on climate change) to respect and implement the rights of Indigenous peoples, including the right of prior informed consent before any climate change project is brought into their communities.

That is an important consideration to many of the Indigenous peoples here, who have concerns that governments will take climate change actions that could have negative effects on Indigenous peoples. Of particular concern is an initiative to make sure carbon remains stored in the world’s forests. The Indigenous peoples are worried that in their zeal to protect forests, some governments may be tempted to trample on Indigenous peoples who rely on the forests for a sustainable livelihood.

Brockmann also threw his weight behind a key demand of Indigenous peoples here, to have a voice at the UNFCCC, so that they can directly influence the next climate deal, a deal that will be crucial for the future well being of the Indigenous peoples.

A rousing call to action

“We are a fortunate people,” begins Winona LaDuke. ”We have a shot at making a difference.” The indigenous writer, activist and economist knows about trying to make a difference, writes Clive Tesar. She was Ralph Nader’s choice for vice-president on the Green party ticket in two US elections.

Today at the Indigenous Peoples’ Summit, she gave a rousing call to action to the delegates, telling them that they must oppose “all new forms of insanity” such as the “Crack cocaine of oil sands”. She talked of peak oil, of the fact that globalization requires cheap oil and plentiful money, and now both are in short supply, so the world can expect many shocks, and must change its way of doing business.

For me, the most affecting part of her speech was her account of her work with a particular Indigenous community to help give people what they need for climate change resilience; a combination of the old and the new.

The “old” is a handful of corn seeds, seeds that were native to the area, but had been kept in a seed bank. This corn grows close to the ground, so it doesn’t get blown over by high winds. It doesn’t require much water, so it is resistant to drought. These conditions, increasing storms, and droughts, are both forecast to be consequences of climate change in American Midwest.

The “new” is a wind turbine – but as LaDuke pointed out, not brand new, but an older, refurbished one that had a simple assembly, so it could be erected and maintained by local people, “so you don’t have to get some guy from Denmark to fix it”. She pointed out that many indigenous communities are well situated to develop wind or solar energy, and to become energy self-sufficient, and perhaps also exporters of renewable energy.

She sees this twin strategy, of reclaiming and repatriating traditional food sources, and of developing appropriate technologies, as ways to make indigenous communities stronger, more self sufficient and more resilient to climate change impacts.

‘Determination to forge a common declaration’

At one point today, a South American elder had everyone in the room hold hands, row joining row, people who had purposely sat apart shuffling together, writes Clive Tesar. The Indigenous participants from the African savanna joined hands with the bureaucrats from the World Bank. Then, after a minute of silence, the elder prayed, in her language.

There may not have been anyone else in the room of about 200 people who understood exactly what she was saying, but we all understood the intent. It struck me that this moment encapsulated what people here are trying to do. Despite widely different local concerns, they had all reached out to come here to demonstrate to the world their determination to forge a common declaration on climate change.

It also struck me that it would be interesting to see the same approach at the UNFCCC negotiations. What if all the negotiators took some time out at the start, to reach out to their neighbours, to reflect, to break through the barriers of language and culture to reach a common purpose.

‘Indigenous peoples need to be heard’

Delegates from South America talk about impacts in Amazonia

People from around the world have gathered in Anchorage, Alaska this week for the Indigenous Peoples’ Global Summit on Climate Change. WWF Arctic Programme’s Head of Communications, Clive Tesar is there, and is filing reports all this week.

“There is no way that the people who created the problem of climate change should be allowed to sidestep their responsibility … we should never leave them one minute or one hour to feel comfortable in their neglect.”

Cletus Springer, a spokesman for the Caribbean region said clearly what many at this gathering felt.  As the Inuit leader Patricia Cochran put it, Indigenous peoples have seemed to be invisible in the debate on global warming, yet the the testimony of Indigenous peoples from around the world shows that they are disproportionately feeling the impacts.

Speakers from the South Pacific spoke of crops are withering in the heat, delegates from the Caribbean spoke of  living in fear of increasingly violent and frequent storms, and people from the Arctic spoke of the sudden, sometimes deadly unpredictability of time worn travel routes.

Delegates from a rainbow of cultures filled the Summit room

WWF’s Arctic Programme contributed money to this conference, because we believe that the Indigenous peoples need to be heard. Personally, I was raised in the north, and have lived among people who still rely heavily on the land. I know that the changes on the land are hitting people hard.

It is not just the economy of Indigenous settlements. It goes deeper than that, down to a very real fear that people have of changes on the land so profound that they become strangers to their own lands.

The encouraging thing is that the people here, and many of the people they represent, are not passively waiting for the changes to come. They refuse to be victims of a problem they did little to create. As the week goes on, people here are working collectively on a declaration that will outline how they plan to take their concerns onto the world stage, and to ensure that nobody can “feel comfortable in their neglect”.